Sep 2026
$422K
-2.4% year-over-year
How it’s calculated
Rolling 3-month median sale price vs. same 3 months one year prior.
Merced, CA housing market
Merced, CA metro median sale price $422K in Sep 2026, down 2.4% year over year. Also days on market, price cuts, affordability and ZIP-code figures.
The median sale price in the Merced, CA metro is $422K as of Sep 2026, down 2.4% from a year earlier. That is the 32nd-steepest year-over-year decline of the 383 U.S. metros Pecan Street ranks on this measure. FHFA's repeat-sales index for the metro shows no change through Q2 2026, 2.4 points from Redfin's.
On median sale price, Merced ($422K) ranks 19th of the 25 California metros Pecan Street tracks, between Fresno ($424K) and Chico ($411K). On median days on market, Merced (53 days) ranks 17th of the 25 California metros, between Santa Rosa (55 days) and Santa Cruz (53 days). On share of listings with a price cut, Merced (34%) ranks 15th of the 25 California metros, between Yuba City (34%) and Santa Rosa (33%).
Listings spent a median 53 days on market in Sep 2026, fewer than in most of the 385 metros. 34% of active listings carry a price cut, 3.8 points fewer than a year earlier. That share is lower than in most of the 385 metros. Median asking prices sit about 6% above the median sale price.
At the 7.29% 30-year fixed rate with 20% down, principal and interest on a median-priced home come to $2,314 a month; at 28% of gross income, that takes about $99K a year. The median sale price equals about 17 years of HUD Fair Market Rent, a ratio down 3.3% from a year earlier. That ratio is higher than in most of the 373 metros. Active listings ask a median $267 per square foot, down 0.1% from a year earlier.
In four of the five ZIP codes in the table below, median list prices are lower than a year earlier; one is higher.
Headline
Oct 15, 2026
7.29%
30-year fixed
Where it comes from
National benchmark: Optimal Blue OBMMI 30-year conforming, via FRED. An average of rates borrowers have actually locked, updated daily.
The same rate appears on every market page.
Principal & interest
$2,314/mo
$99K/yr income needed
How it’s calculated
Payment — this market’s median sale price with 20% down, on a 30-year fixed loan at the rate shown. Principal and interest only — no property tax, insurance, PMI or HOA.
Income needed — that payment at 28% of gross income. A rule of thumb, not a lending decision.
How Merced compares to other U.S. metros
| Home-price growth | ↓352nd of 383 |
|---|---|
| Price-to-rent | ↑111th of 373 (top 30%) |
| Price cuts | ↓249th of 385 |
| Days on market | ↓245th of 385 |
| Asking-vs-sale gap | 156th of 292 |
Rank across the U.S. metros Pecan Street tracks, on market data alone — a higher rank means more of that measure (more price cuts, faster price growth, a wider asking-vs-sale gap, a higher price-to-rent ratio, or more days on market). The bar shows where this metro sits within that metric’s own cohort (left is more, right is less); ↑ and ↓ mark the positions furthest from the middle, and rows are ordered the same way. Metrics without data for this metro are omitted.
Affordability
| Price-to-rent ratio | ≈ 17 -3.3% YoY ↑111th of 373 (top 30%) |
|---|---|
| Asking price / sq ft | $267 -0.1% YoY |
Price-to-rent divides the median sale price by the annual HUD Fair Market Rent (a 3-bedroom, 40th-percentile benchmark), so it is a directional rent-vs-buy read, not a cap rate; its year-over-year change is directional in the same way. Asking price per square foot is the median across active for-sale listings (Realtor.com), as of Sep 2026. The bar under a figure places this metro among the U.S. metros we track on that measure, highest first.
Market pressure
| Listings with a price cut | ≈ 34% -3.8 pts YoY ↓249th of 385 |
|---|
The median asking price $448K runs about 6% above the median sale price $422K.
Price-cut share is the portion of active for-sale listings that have taken a price reduction (Realtor.com), as of Sep 2026. Asking is the median list price of active listings (Realtor.com, this month); sale is the headline median of recent closings (Redfin, a rolling 3-month median) — distinct sources and windows, so the gap is a directional read, not a like-for-like difference. The bar under a figure places this metro among the U.S. metros we track on that measure, highest first.
Market facts
| ZIPs with listing data | 5 shown of 18 |
|---|---|
| MLS board of record | — |
| Price methodology | Redfin vs FHFA HPI |
| Data as of | Sep 2026 |
Recent signals
No signals flagged for this market right now.
Recent notable readings
- 188 new listings in September 2026: the fewest for any September in Realtor.com's Merced data since 2016. It is one of 24 of the 385 U.S. metros Pecan Street tracks to set that record.
- The FHFA house price index for the metro fell 65% from Q2 2006 to Q2 2011: the deepest bust of the 385 U.S. metros Pecan Street tracks with FHFA data; it has risen 232% since Q2 2011: the 10th-largest rebound of the 382 metros whose prices fell.
Readings from the latest data that sit at one end of the U.S. metros Pecan Street tracks, from the nightly cross-metro comparison. They are not signal alerts.
Price reconciliation
amber · 2.4ppRedfin (metro) -2.4% | FHFA HPI · Q2 2026 -0.0% |
Year-over-year home-price change from two independent methods — Redfin (monthly sold price) and FHFA (quarterly repeat-sales index). When they diverge, the market is mid-shift; cite the figure with that in mind.
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Start free trialZIP-level data
| ZIP | Median list price | Active listings | New listings | Price reductions | Days on market | Home value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93635 | $495K↓ | 96↓ | 26↓ | 26↓ | 59↑ | $456K↓ |
| 95301 | $412K↓ | 49↓ | 28↓ | 12↓ | 39↓ | $418K↑ |
| 95340 | $416K↑ | 94↑ | 40 | 40 | 46↓ | $401K↓ |
| 95341 | $399K↓ | 55↓ | 12↓ | 16↓ | 54↓ | $362K↓ |
| 95348 | $435K↓ | 85↓ | 20↓ | 28↓ | 62 | $411K↓ |
ZIP figures from Realtor.com listing data; home value from Zillow ZHVI. ZIP codes shown have the most complete listing-data history and active for-sale inventory in this metro; the latest available month is shown per ZIP. Arrows show the direction of each figure against the same three months a year earlier; no arrow means the change rounds to zero or the comparison isn't available.