Jul–Sep 2026
$482K
+1.3% year-over-year
How it’s calculated
Average of the last three monthly median sale prices vs. the same three months a year earlier.
Modesto, CA housing market
Modesto, CA metro median sale price $482K in Jul–Sep 2026, up 1.3% year over year. Also days on market, price cuts, affordability and ZIP-code figures.
The median sale price in the Modesto, CA metro is $482K over Jul–Sep 2026, up 1.3% from the same 3 months a year earlier. That change sits near the middle of the 383 U.S. metros Pecan Street ranks on this measure. FHFA's repeat-sales index for the metro agrees within 1.5 points (up 2.8% through Q2 2026).
On median sale price, Modesto ($482K) ranks 16th of the 25 California metros Pecan Street tracks, between Stockton ($541K) and Yuba City ($448K). On median days on market, Modesto (50 days) ranks 21st of the 25 California metros, between Sacramento (52 days) and Vallejo (50 days). On share of listings with a price cut, Modesto (40%) ranks 3rd of the 25 California metros, between Hanford (41%) and Sacramento (38%).
Listings spent a median 50 days on market in Oct 2026, fewer than in most of the 385 metros. 40% of active listings carry a price cut; the 3-month average vs a year earlier is 0.6 points higher. That share is higher than in most of the 385 metros. Median asking prices sit about 4% above the median sale price. Building permits authorized 106 new housing units in Sep 2026.
At the 7.09% 30-year fixed rate with 20% down, principal and interest on a median-priced home come to $2,589 a month; at 28% of gross income, that takes about $111K a year. The median sale price equals about 17 years of HUD Fair Market Rent, a ratio up 2.6% from a year earlier. That ratio is higher than in most of the 373 metros. Active listings ask a median $300 per square foot; the 3-month average vs a year earlier is up 1.9%.
Median list prices are higher than a year earlier in six of the 12 ZIP codes in the table below and lower in six.
Headline
Nov 5, 2026
7.09%
30-year fixed
Where it comes from
National benchmark: Optimal Blue OBMMI 30-year conforming, via FRED. An average of rates borrowers have actually locked, updated daily.
The same rate appears on every market page.
Principal & interest
$2,589/mo
$111K/yr income needed
How it’s calculated
Payment — this market’s median sale price with 20% down, on a 30-year fixed loan at the rate shown. Principal and interest only — no property tax, insurance, PMI or HOA.
Income needed — that payment at 28% of gross income. A rule of thumb, not a lending decision.
How Modesto compares to other U.S. metros
| Days on market | ↓303rd of 385 |
|---|---|
| Price cuts | ↑106th of 385 (top 28%) |
| Price-to-rent | ↑120th of 373 (top 33%) |
| Asking-vs-sale gap | ↓182nd of 300 |
| Home-price growth | 225th of 383 |
Rank across the U.S. metros Pecan Street tracks, on market data alone — a higher rank means more of that measure (more price cuts, faster price growth, a wider asking-vs-sale gap, a higher price-to-rent ratio, or more days on market). The bar shows where this metro sits within that metric’s own cohort (left is more, right is less); ↑ and ↓ mark the positions furthest from the middle, and rows are ordered the same way. Metrics without data for this metro are omitted.
Affordability
| Price-to-rent ratio | ≈ 17 +2.6% YoY ↑120th of 373 (top 33%) |
|---|---|
| Asking price / sq ft | $300 +1.9% 3-month average vs a year earlier |
Price-to-rent divides the median sale price by the annual HUD Fair Market Rent (a 3-bedroom, 40th-percentile benchmark), so it is a directional rent-vs-buy read, not a cap rate; its year-over-year change is directional in the same way. Asking price per square foot is the median across active for-sale listings (Realtor.com), as of Oct 2026. The bar under a figure places this metro among the U.S. metros we track on that measure, highest first.
Market pressure
| Listings with a price cut | ≈ 40% +0.6 pts 3-month average vs a year earlier ↑106th of 385 (top 28%) |
|---|---|
| New housing units permitted | 106 |
The median asking price $500K runs about 4% above the median sale price $482K.
Price-cut share is the portion of active for-sale listings that have taken a price reduction (Realtor.com), as of Oct 2026. New housing units authorized by residential building permits in the metro that month — new supply in the pipeline, which counts of existing listings don't capture (US Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey), as of Sep 2026. Asking is the median list price of active listings (Realtor.com, Oct 2026); sale is the headline median of recent closings (Redfin, Jul–Sep 2026) — distinct sources and windows, so the gap is a directional read, not a like-for-like difference. The bar under a figure places this metro among the U.S. metros we track on that measure, highest first.
Market facts
| ZIPs with listing data | 12 shown of 25 |
|---|---|
| MLS board of record | — |
| Price methodology | Redfin vs FHFA HPI |
| Sale-price window | Jul–Sep 2026 |
Recent signals
No signals flagged for this market right now.
Recent notable readings
- Single-family building permits rose 58% over the 12 months through Sep 2026 (1,143 homes, against 724 the year before): the 8th-largest increase of the 369 U.S. metros Pecan Street tracks.
- The FHFA house price index for the metro fell 61% from Q1 2006 to Q1 2012: the 3rd-deepest bust of the 385 U.S. metros Pecan Street tracks with FHFA data; it has risen 229% since Q1 2012: the 15th-largest rebound of the 382 metros whose prices fell. Q2 2026 is its highest reading on record.
Readings from the latest data that sit at one end of the U.S. metros Pecan Street tracks, from the nightly cross-metro comparison. They are not signal alerts.
Housing Economy
Modesto builders pulled 57.9% more single-family permits than a year earlier
Single-family building permits in the Modesto metro area, by month, one line per year, units
2024
Chart data
| Month | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec | 55 | 54 | — |
| Nov | 69 | 45 | — |
| Oct | 71 | 112 | — |
| Sep | 45 | 48 | 74 |
| Aug | 69 | 47 | 71 |
| Jul | 66 | 72 | 87 |
| Jun | 61 | 77 | 96 |
| May | 99 | 43 | 154 |
| Apr | 76 | 43 | 97 |
| Mar | 113 | 84 | 162 |
| Feb | 72 | 38 | 79 |
| Jan | 73 | 77 | 112 |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data through September 2026
Builders in the Modesto metro area pulled 1,143 single-family permits in the twelve months through September 2026, 57.9% more than in the twelve months before. So far in 2026, permits are running 76.2% above the same months of 2025.
Why it matters. Permits come before starts, and starts come before new homes for sale, so this is the earliest read on how much new building is planned in the Modesto area. When the permit pipeline shrinks, buyers see fewer new-build options later; when it grows, sellers of existing homes face more competition from builders.
Modesto home prices are 2.8% higher than a year ago
Home prices in the Modesto metro area, change from a year earlier, FHFA all-transactions index, quarterly, percent; shaded bars mark recessions
No changeRecession
Chart data
| Date | Modesto |
|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | 2.8% |
| Mar 2026 | 1.1% |
| Dec 2025 | 1.3% |
| Sep 2025 | -0.4% |
| Jun 2025 | 1.6% |
| Mar 2025 | 3.5% |
| Dec 2024 | 3.7% |
| Sep 2024 | 6.1% |
| Jun 2024 | 4% |
| Mar 2024 | 4.3% |
| Dec 2023 | 3.7% |
| Sep 2023 | 0.6% |
| Jun 2023 | -2.4% |
| Mar 2023 | 1.1% |
| Dec 2022 | 2.8% |
| Sep 2022 | 9.1% |
| Jun 2022 | 18.7% |
| Mar 2022 | 20.3% |
| Dec 2021 | 21.4% |
| Sep 2021 | 21.5% |
| Jun 2021 | 16.3% |
| Mar 2021 | 10.5% |
| Dec 2020 | 8.4% |
| Sep 2020 | 5.7% |
| Jun 2020 | 4.8% |
| Mar 2020 | 4.7% |
| Dec 2019 | 3.8% |
| Sep 2019 | 3.7% |
| Jun 2019 | 4.3% |
| Mar 2019 | 5.6% |
| Dec 2018 | 7.1% |
| Sep 2018 | 8.8% |
| Jun 2018 | 9.4% |
| Mar 2018 | 8.8% |
| Dec 2017 | 8.6% |
| Sep 2017 | 7.9% |
| Jun 2017 | 7.9% |
| Mar 2017 | 8.8% |
| Dec 2016 | 8.3% |
| Sep 2016 | 8.8% |
| Jun 2016 | 9.1% |
| Mar 2016 | 8.6% |
| Dec 2015 | 7.9% |
| Sep 2015 | 7.6% |
| Jun 2015 | 8% |
| Mar 2015 | 10% |
| Dec 2014 | 13% |
| Sep 2014 | 18.2% |
| Jun 2014 | 24.7% |
| Mar 2014 | 28.7% |
| Dec 2013 | 28.7% |
| Sep 2013 | 23.9% |
| Jun 2013 | 17.6% |
| Mar 2013 | 10.3% |
| Dec 2012 | 6.3% |
| Sep 2012 | 3.4% |
| Jun 2012 | -0.8% |
| Mar 2012 | -3.3% |
| Dec 2011 | -8.5% |
| Sep 2011 | -9.2% |
| Jun 2011 | -7.9% |
| Mar 2011 | -6.7% |
| Dec 2010 | -4.5% |
| Sep 2010 | -2.8% |
| Jun 2010 | -7.7% |
| Mar 2010 | -12.1% |
| Dec 2009 | -9.1% |
| Sep 2009 | -15.7% |
| Jun 2009 | -23.6% |
| Mar 2009 | -30.5% |
| Dec 2008 | -36.9% |
| Sep 2008 | -37.9% |
| Jun 2008 | -32.2% |
| Mar 2008 | -24.8% |
| Dec 2007 | -19.6% |
| Sep 2007 | -12.5% |
| Jun 2007 | -9.1% |
| Mar 2007 | -5.7% |
| Dec 2006 | -0.5% |
| Sep 2006 | 4.1% |
| Jun 2006 | 12.4% |
| Mar 2006 | 22.4% |
| Dec 2005 | 26.7% |
| Sep 2005 | 27.8% |
| Jun 2005 | 30.4% |
| Mar 2005 | 27.1% |
| Dec 2004 | 23.6% |
| Sep 2004 | 23.6% |
| Jun 2004 | 18.6% |
| Mar 2004 | 14.8% |
| Dec 2003 | 14.7% |
| Sep 2003 | 12% |
| Jun 2003 | 12.3% |
| Mar 2003 | 13.8% |
| Dec 2002 | 12.8% |
| Sep 2002 | 11.4% |
| Jun 2002 | 11.1% |
| Mar 2002 | 13.7% |
| Dec 2001 | 17.9% |
| Sep 2001 | 21.3% |
| Jun 2001 | 21.7% |
| Mar 2001 | 17.2% |
| Dec 2000 | 14.1% |
| Sep 2000 | 11.7% |
| Jun 2000 | 7% |
| Mar 2000 | 6.3% |
| Dec 1999 | 3.9% |
| Sep 1999 | 3.5% |
| Jun 1999 | 5% |
| Mar 1999 | 3% |
| Dec 1998 | 5.8% |
| Sep 1998 | 3.9% |
| Jun 1998 | 4.7% |
| Mar 1998 | 5% |
| Dec 1997 | 1.3% |
| Sep 1997 | 2.6% |
| Jun 1997 | -0.5% |
| Mar 1997 | -1.7% |
| Dec 1996 | -1.4% |
| Sep 1996 | -3.1% |
| Jun 1996 | -0.5% |
| Mar 1996 | 1.9% |
| Dec 1995 | 1.8% |
| Sep 1995 | 0.6% |
| Jun 1995 | -3.7% |
| Mar 1995 | -6.6% |
| Dec 1994 | -7.3% |
| Sep 1994 | -5.7% |
| Jun 1994 | -3.5% |
| Mar 1994 | -1.8% |
| Dec 1993 | -1.8% |
| Sep 1993 | -2.8% |
| Jun 1993 | -1.6% |
| Mar 1993 | -1.9% |
| Dec 1992 | -1.3% |
| Sep 1992 | -0.3% |
| Jun 1992 | -1.4% |
| Mar 1992 | -1.3% |
| Dec 1991 | -1.7% |
| Sep 1991 | -2.4% |
| Jun 1991 | -1% |
| Mar 1991 | 3% |
| Dec 1990 | 8.2% |
| Sep 1990 | 16.1% |
| Jun 1990 | 23.8% |
| Mar 1990 | 24.7% |
| Dec 1989 | 23.9% |
| Sep 1989 | 18.6% |
| Jun 1989 | 13.6% |
| Mar 1989 | 11.2% |
| Dec 1988 | 10.9% |
| Sep 1988 | 11.4% |
| Jun 1988 | 10% |
| Mar 1988 | 8.4% |
| Dec 1987 | 8.8% |
| Sep 1987 | 8.3% |
| Jun 1987 | 7.6% |
| Mar 1987 | 8.8% |
| Dec 1986 | 8.2% |
| Sep 1986 | 7.6% |
| Jun 1986 | 4.7% |
| Mar 1986 | 4% |
| Dec 1985 | 5.3% |
| Sep 1985 | 2.2% |
| Jun 1985 | 5% |
| Mar 1985 | 2% |
| Dec 1984 | 2.3% |
| Sep 1984 | 1.3% |
| Jun 1984 | -1.5% |
| Mar 1984 | -4.1% |
| Dec 1983 | -8.8% |
| Sep 1983 | 47.2% |
| Jun 1983 | 2.5% |
| Mar 1983 | 2.1% |
| Dec 1982 | 2.9% |
| Sep 1982 | -36.2% |
| Jun 1982 | -1.7% |
| Mar 1982 | 6.9% |
| Dec 1981 | 3.3% |
| Sep 1981 | 12.9% |
| Jun 1981 | 8.7% |
| Mar 1981 | 7.9% |
| Dec 1980 | 15.5% |
| Sep 1980 | 13.9% |
| Jun 1980 | 15.4% |
| Mar 1980 | 18.6% |
| Dec 1979 | 18.4% |
| Sep 1979 | 8.2% |
| Jun 1979 | 15.4% |
| Mar 1979 | -3.1% |
| Dec 1978 | 10.3% |
| Sep 1978 | 23.5% |
| Jun 1978 | 19.9% |
Source: FHFA house price index; recession dates from NBER · data through Q2 2026
FHFA's all-transactions index for the Modesto metro area in the second quarter of 2026 was 2.8% above its level a year earlier. Since 1978, prices have risen an average of 5.6% a year. Nationally, prices were 3.0% higher than a year earlier.
Why it matters. Long-run context shows how the latest change in Modesto home prices compares with the market's own history, including the recessions shaded on the chart. When appreciation slows, sellers have less room for a list price to run ahead of recent sales, and buyers feel less pressure to stretch to keep up; when it speeds up, the reverse holds: list prices can run ahead of recent sales and buyers compete harder.
Price reconciliation
normal · 1.5ppRedfin (metro) +1.3% | FHFA HPI · Q2 2026 +2.8% |
Year-over-year home-price change from two independent methods — Redfin (sale prices over the last 3 months) and FHFA (quarterly repeat-sales index). When they diverge, the market is mid-shift; cite the figure with that in mind.
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Try it freeZIP-level data
| ZIP | Median list price | Active listings | New listings | Price reductions | Days on market | Home value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95307 | $480K↑ | 40↑ | 16↑ | 12↑ | 40↓ | $448K↑ |
| 95350 | $440K↑ | 85↓ | 44↑ | 32↓ | 35↓ | $422K↑ |
| 95354 | $440K↓ | 41↑ | 16↓ | 20↑ | 47↑ | $393K↑ |
| 95355 | $517K↑ | 86↑ | 32↑ | 40 | 53↓ | $486K↑ |
| 95356 | $562K↓ | 62↓ | 24↓ | 28↓ | 48↓ | $517K↑ |
| 95357 | $465K↓ | 39↑ | 12↑ | 12↑ | 37↓ | $501K↑ |
| 95358 | $479K↑ | 33↑ | 8↑ | 12↓ | 50↓ | $427K↑ |
| 95361 | $573K↓ | 97↓ | 24↓ | 44↑ | 60↓ | $553K↑ |
| 95363 | $520K↓ | 80↓ | 24↓ | 24↓ | 69↓ | $504K↓ |
| 95367 | $500K↓ | 55↓ | 16↓ | 24↑ | 44↓ | $481K↑ |
| 95380 | $460K↑ | 52↓ | 16↓ | 16↓ | 47↓ | $442K↑ |
| 95382 | $605K↑ | 51↓ | 20↓ | 20↓ | 54↓ | $511K↑ |
ZIP figures from Realtor.com listing data; home value from Zillow ZHVI. ZIP codes shown have the most complete listing-data history and active for-sale inventory in this metro; the latest available month is shown per ZIP. Arrows show the direction of each figure against the same three months a year earlier; no arrow means the change rounds to zero or the comparison isn't available.